By Adejumo Kabir and Dr Ola Bello

Nigeria is approaching another general election, but troubling developments across the political landscape are raising questions about whether the country is adequately prepared to guarantee a safe and credible electoral process.

From attacks by various political parties’ supporters on rival parties’ loyalists and disruptions of campaign activities to allegations of intimidation, threats and the use of violence against political opponents, the signs are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. While the 2027 general elections will be held in January, the environment in which political parties, candidates and citizens are expected to participate is already attracting concern.

Recent incidents in Katsina, Sokoto and Ekiti illustrate the breadth of the challenge that electoral violence is not an isolated inconvenience or an inevitable feature of political competition. It is a direct threat to democratic participation, institutional credibility and the right of citizens to choose their leaders without fear.

The question Nigerians should be asking is not simply who is responsible for each incident, but what is being done to prevent these developments from escalating as electioneering intensifies.

Warning signs across the political landscape

On October 31, Hoodlums reportedly attacked supporters of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) travelling to attend Governor Dikko Radda’s campaign rally in Faskari, Katsina State. The incident left several people injured and campaign vehicles burnt. This followed another attack in Malumfashi Local Government Area, where APC supporters travelling to the party’s campaign flag-off in Funtua were attacked. 

In Sokoto, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) Presidential Campaign Council claimed its female supporters were attacked during a campaign activity, with its branded vehicle reportedly seized. The party also raised concerns about alleged restrictions on accommodation for delegates ahead of its presidential campaign flag-off. While the Sokoto State Government denied the allegation concerning hotel operators, the police confirmed receiving information about an attack involving damaged vehicles and property and said an investigation was ongoing.

In Ekiti, African Action Congress (AAC) presidential candidate Omoyele Sowore and members of his team were attacked in Ado-Ekiti. The police later announced the arrest of 11 suspects in connection with the incident.

These incidents differ in their circumstances, and allegations of political sponsorship or complicity must be investigated. They point to a political environment in which the safety of people participating in electoral activities requires urgent attention.

Violence undermines the right to participate

Elections are not merely occasions for political parties to compete for power. They are constitutional processes through which citizens exercise their right to participate in determining who governs them. That participation extends beyond casting a ballot on election day. It includes the freedom to join political parties, attend rallies, organise campaigns, express political opinions, canvass for candidates and engage in peaceful political activities.

When supporters are attacked on their way to campaign events, opposition activities are disrupted, and political actors face intimidation. The consequences go beyond the immediate victims, as such incidents can discourage participation, restrict political competition and create an atmosphere in which citizens begin to calculate the personal risks of expressing their political preferences.

The danger is particularly significant for women, young people, persons with disabilities and economically vulnerable citizens, who may already face barriers to meaningful political participation. Even where voting takes place, the freedom and fairness of the process are undermined when fear influences who campaigns, who participates and who feels safe enough to exercise their rights.

A peace accord must translate into action

The National Peace Committee, chaired by former Head of State General Abdulsalami Abubakar and convened by the Kukah Centre, organised the signing of the first National Peace Accord for the 2027 electoral cycle on August 18. Political parties and candidates committed to peaceful, issue-based campaigns and pledged to reject violence, hate speech, misinformation and other conduct capable of undermining the electoral process.

However, the developments since then raise questions about the effectiveness of these commitments. In fact, the committee has recorded 60 election-related incidents between August 19 and September 19. The figures should serve as an early warning, not merely another statistic in the country’s election-monitoring reports.

A peace accord cannot become an annual political ritual in which candidates sign documents, make public declarations and return to business as usual. Its value lies in the extent to which political parties, candidates and their supporters translate their commitments into conduct.

Political leaders must take responsibility for the behaviour of their supporters. The responsibility also extends to those who use inflammatory language or circulate unverified claims that could provoke hostility. 

Security agencies must act impartially

The Nigeria Police Force and other security agencies have a central role in preventing electoral violence. They must identify potential flashpoints, assess security risks around political activities, protect campaign participants and investigate incidents promptly. Where evidence establishes criminal responsibility, perpetrators and sponsors must be prosecuted in accordance with the law.

Crucially, security agencies must demonstrate impartiality. The protection available to a ruling party must be no different from that available to an opposition. Political affiliation must never determine whose safety receives attention or whose complaints deserve investigation.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) also has an important responsibility to work with security agencies, political parties and civil society organisations to strengthen early-warning and response mechanisms. Election security should not be treated as an issue to be addressed only on polling day. It must cover the entire electoral cycle, including party primaries, campaigns, rallies, voter mobilisation, voting, collation and the announcement of results.

The judiciary and relevant law enforcement institutions must also ensure that electoral offences are addressed promptly and transparently. A system in which perpetrators of political violence are rarely identified or prosecuted creates an environment in which intimidation can become a tool of political competition.

The cost of inaction

Nigeria cannot afford to wait until violence becomes widespread before treating the warning signs with the seriousness they deserve. The consequences of electoral violence are not limited to injuries, damaged property or disrupted rallies. It can deepen political divisions, weaken trust in democratic institutions, discourage participation and undermine the legitimacy of elected governments.

The 2027 elections must not become an exercise in which political actors compete not only for votes but also for control of public spaces through intimidation.

Democracy is not strengthened by the ability of political actors to mobilise the largest crowds, command the most intimidating supporters or dominate public spaces. It is strengthened when citizens can freely associate, express political preferences, participate in campaigns and cast their votes without coercion.

If Nigerians cannot safely campaign for their preferred candidates today, we cannot confidently guarantee that they will freely choose their leaders tomorrow.

…………………..

Adejumo Kabir Adeniyi is a senior researcher at Good Governance Africa (GGA). He is an expert with many years of experience in community development work and governance accountability sector. He recently obtained his Master of Public Administration with Distinction from Miva Open University and holds a Bachelor’s degree (English) from the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife. 

…………………..

Dr Ola (Ola) Bello is the Executive Director of Good Governance Africa (GGA). He obtained both his MPhil and PhD degrees in International Relations from the University of Cambridge and also holds a First Class BSc degree from the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife.